Would you expect investors to be more overconfident in the midst of a bull market or a bear market?

5 Comments

1. Karla C says:

   November 26, 2009 at 08:43

   K
2. Alvie says:

   November 26, 2009 at 09:21

   Probably in a bear market investors are more likely to get overconfident.

   Because confidence during a bull market is correct. And it’s not overconfidence.

   While during a bear market, any confidence that the bottom has been reached is usually false confidence. Which is the same as overconfidence.
3. Ed B says:

   November 26, 2009 at 10:09

   Hi, Investors call themselves all kinds of names. Contrarian traders go against the grain. Bullish trader you go with the growth momentum. If you are a Bear you bet against market growth. Day traders are in and out for short gains. Traders play the market many different ways and can get over confident using any the philosophy’s.
   What kind of Trader are you? What ever the philosophy, only losers allow then selves to become confident let alone over confident. I try to be in “Controlled Fear”…….. : )
4. Jason V says:

   November 26, 2009 at 10:31

   I would say during a bull market. Whenever we enter a bubble everyone want to get in because of greed, but so many do when prices are already inflated so they end up buying high and selling low. With greed comes overconfidence.
5. chuma m says:

   November 26, 2009 at 10:31

   Well basically a bear market is defined by sell offs. So if you have a sell off then that means confidence is down. However your day time traders operate on a plane of their own. Over confidence fuels their short term gains.